And then there was one—remaining playoff spot, that is. Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington are neck-and-neck in the race for the eighth post-season spot. With Angel Reese out for the season, Rhyne Howard scoring at a high clip, and the Mystics fully healthy, things should get very interesting in the last few weeks of the regular season.
Grab your popcorn! And dive into my current power rankings.
Stats and analysis as of Sunday, September 8.
1. New York Liberty (28-6)
As the post-season nears, there is no denying the Liberty’s star power—and I’m not just talking about the celebrities who sit courtside at Barclays. The tenacious team that started the season 14-2 is the same, currently 14-2 in their last 16 games. They’ve been consistent. The chip on their shoulder that formed when A’ja Wilson’s Aces won the 2023 championship on their home floor grew when the Napheesa Collier’s Lynx won the Commissioner’s Cup in their city in June. Last season, they were the only WNBA team to eclipse 30 wins and not win a championship. This season, if they continue the offensive efficiency and defensive status (they’re ranked number one in both categories), it’s their title to lose.
In Sunday’s meeting with the Aces, as mentioned earlier—sans Wilson—New York won again, sweeping Las Vegas in the regular season for the first time since 2016. When asked about that stat after the game, Breanna Stewart (21 points, 11 rebounds, game-saving block) hinted that the regular season is one thing, but the playoffs are another. And she’s right. With five games remaining, they have little left to prove. It’s the post-season when all eyes will be on them to finish the job and bring home the franchise’s first championship.
2. Minnesota Lynx (26-9)
Previous Ranking: 3
Last Week: W at Fever 99-88, W at Mystics 78-71
This Week: Tuesday at Dream, Friday vs. Sky, Sunday at Liberty
Team Stats: OffRtg: 103.4 (4); DefRtg: 95.1 (3); NetRtg: 8.3 (2); eFG%: 51.9 (4)
Coach Cheryl Reeve’s Lynx (and her Olympic gold chain) are 10-1 since the break, moving them up to the second power rankings spot. The last time the Lynx eclipsed 25 wins, they won the Finals in 2017. They lead the league in 3-point shooting, assists per game, and are second in steals. But there is one stat I’m so curious about: Minnesota is second-to-last in Pace. How is one of the slowest teams having so much success?
It reminds me of the famous John Wooden quote, “Be quick, but don’t hurry.” When the offense is too sped up, the technique begins to falter. Looking at the roster, it’s not a ton of speedsters, minus Natisha Hiedeman’s quickness. When at their best, the Lynx are meticulous in getting the best shot. They constantly display the fact that the ball moves faster than any dribble can (hence their league-leading team assists per game):
Look at the ball movement from the Minnesota Lynx. pic.twitter.com/pu3RVUUbJX
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) August 22, 2024
The current Pace per 40 minutes (79.38) is eerily similar to the 2017 championship team’s (78.68). It worked then, and it’s working now. Reeve knows what she’s doing.
3. Connecticut Sun (25-10)
Previous Ranking: 2
Last Week: L vs. Storm 64-71, L vs. Aces 67-72, W at Sparks 79-67
This Week: Tuesday at Sparks, Friday at Mercury, Sunday at Aces
Team Stats: OffRtg: 101.6 (6); DefRtg: 94.5 (1); NetRtg: 7.1 (3); eFG%: 48.3 (8)
The Sun dropped two games last week against title contenders Storm and Aces, making me nervous. After only losing one game in their first 14 games, they’ve lost six of their last 14. For any other team, that’s not bad news. But for a team like Connecticut, it could fare worrisome. To me, this is an all-or-nothing year for the Sun. DeWanna Bonner (averaging 15.9 points on 32.2 minutes per game in year 14), Alyssa Thomas (still in her prime in season 11), and a healthy Brionna Jones can’t be wasted any longer. The Sun, unfortunately, has consistently been the bridesmaid, never the bride; the franchise has been to the WNBA finals the most without a title to show for it. If this post-season has the same result, could GM Darius Taylor blow this roster up?
Defense is this team’s core identity, but in Friday’s loss to Las Vegas, the Sun blew a 15-point lead after having control of the game for 34 of the 40 total minutes. They hope this is not a foreshadowing of their season: A blistering-hot start only for it to crumble down the stretch.
“We’re putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to be perfect, or putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to see one thing,” Sun head coach Stephanie White said after the loss. “We are encouraging them to just play a little bit more free, like, relax, have fun. And they want it really bad, right? So sometimes when you want something really bad, you almost hinder your ability to get it because you’re tight because you want everything to be perfect.”
There is still time for dreams to become realized, but only time will tell.
4. Las Vegas Aces (22-13)
Previous Ranking: 5
Last Week: W vs. Sky 90-71, W at Sun 72-67, L at Liberty 75-71
This Week: Wednesday at Fever, Friday at Fever, Sunday vs. Sun
Team Stats: OffRtg: 105.6 (2); DefRtg: 100.1 (5); NetRtg: 5.5 (5); eFG%: 52.0 (3)
We collectively held our breath when MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson limped off the court Friday night against Connecticut, right? It was a scary sight as it appears Wilson tweaked her ankle in the final seconds but finished the game with a clutch free throw to complete a 15-point comeback. The injury kept her sidelined for Sunday’s Liberty match-up. She wore a boot on the bench. The good news: “Everything is basically clear — there’s no long-term concerns,” Coach Becky Hammon stated pre-game. Whew.
Before Sunday, Wilson had 172 consecutive game appearances, marking the league’s longest active streak. Still, her MVP status doesn’t take a hit. What she has done this season will be talked about for decades. But, if Hammon and her staff decide to rest her for the remainder of the season (I think this might be a good idea), the schedule isn’t favored. Back-to-back battles against a red-hot Fever, a vengeful Sun, and a surging Storm team that’s gunning for a fourth-place finish.
5. Seattle Storm (21-14)
Previous Ranking: 4
Last Week: W at Sun 71-64, L at Liberty 77-70, W vs. Mercury 90-66
This Week: Wednesday at Sparks, Friday at Wings, Sunday vs. Sparks
Team Stats: OffRtg: 101.6 (7); DefRtg: 95.8 (4); NetRtg: 5.8 (4); eFG%: 47.4 (10)
Skylar Diggins-Smith has cemented herself in Storm history in her first season with the franchise. After dropping 11 dimes in Saturday’s win over the Mercury, she set the single-season assists record with 227, passing Storm legend Sue Bird. After having some choice and motivational words for her team after a few close losses, the Storm made solid steps forward. Last week’s win over the Sun was a statement game, especially after losing to them two days prior. Diggins-Smith’s team-high 18 points (50% from the field) led them to a much-needed road win.
“The belief didn’t waver,” Diggins-Smith said post-game. “Where the frustration comes from is, we know what type of team we have. We know what we have in that locker room. We know what we’re capable of.”
The Storm have one of the easiest remaining schedules with another game against the Mercury (who they just beat by 24 points), the Wings, and the Sparks twice. A strong finish could lead to a home-court advantage in the first round.
6. Indiana Fever (19-17)
Previous Ranking: 6
Last Week: W vs. Sparks 93-86, L vs. Lynx 88-99, W vs. Dream 104-100 OT
This Week: Wednesday vs. Aces, Friday vs. Aces, Sunday vs. Wings
Team Stats: OffRtg: 103.8 (3); DefRtg: 107.1 (11); NetRtg: -3.3 (6); eFG%: 52.1 (1)
In Sunday’s game against the Dream, Kelsey Mitchell got a steal. Instead of driving in for a lay-up, Mitchell dribbles between her legs, steps back, and drills a 3-pointer over Atlanta’s Rhyne Howard. Fever analyst Debbie Antonelli celebratory yells into her mic; play-by-play Pat Boylan called the shot “audacious.” That’s what Mitchell, Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, and the entire Fever team have been. Electric. Fiery. Audacious.
Clark posted her second career triple-double in Wednesday’s win over the Sparks (24 points, ten assists, and ten rebounds). She’s the fifth player with multiple triple-doubles in a WNBA season, joining Alyssa Thomas, Courtney Williams, Sabrina Ionescu, and Candace Parker, according to ESPN’s Alexa Philippou. She was the lone rookie with a triple-double; now she has two.
After defeating the Sparks, the Fever won five straight games for the first time since 2015. Then, the Lynx came into town to spoil the fun. But Sunday’s overtime thriller versus a desperate Atlanta Dream relit the Fever’s fire. Indiana roared back in the second half after being down by as many as 16 points. Boston scored a career-high 30 points (22 of them coming in the second half and overtime). It was the team’s first overtime win of the season.
Mitchell’s absurd post-Olympic break hot streak continued last week. She became the first player in WNBA history to average 25+ points per game while shooting 50-40-90 during a 5-game win streak (25.8 PPG, 52.2 FG%, 47.2 3P%, 90.0 FT%). Unsurprisingly, their 19 wins are more than the last two seasons combined.
7. Phoenix Mercury (17-19)
Previous Ranking: 7
Last Week: W vs. Dream 74-66, L vs. Mystics 77-90, L at Storm 66-90
This Week: Friday vs. Sun, Sunday at Sky
Team Stats: OffRtg: 101.3 (8); DefRtg: 104.9 (9); NetRtg: -3.6 (7); eFG%: 50.4 (6)
The vibes are off in the desert. Phoenix has lost five of their last six games, all by double-digits. Earlier in the season, when the Mercury’s win-loss column resembled a rollercoaster, I wasn’t too worried; I took heart in knowing a veteran team with Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner, and Natasha Cloud would soar in the postseason. Now, it’s looking bleak.
“We need to learn how to be great teammates,” guard Sophie Cunningham said after a 24-point loss to Seattle. “At the end of the day, we get to play basketball for a living, so that’s a blessing. Maybe changing our perspectives to start to be a little more grateful would be a good start.”
Who knows what this really means. But the positive news is they’ve still managed to clinch a playoff spot. There’s a five-day break before they battle the Sun on Sunday. Hopefully, a vibe shift will happen by then.
8. Chicago Sky (13-22)
Chennedy Carter #7 of the Chicago Sky
Previous Ranking: 9
Last Week: L at Aces 71-90, W vs. Sparks 92-78, W vs. Wings 92-77
This Week: Wednesday vs. Mystics, Friday at Lynx, Sunday vs. Mercury
Team Stats: OffRtg: 98.2 (9); DefRtg: 101.8 (7); NetRtg: -3.6 (8); eFG%: 46.0 (11)
The biggest news out of Chi-Town is that Barbie will miss the remainder of the season with a wrist fracture.
“Through it all, I have [shown] that I belong in this league even when no one else believed,” Angel Reese posted on social media. “All I have ever wanted was to come into the W and make an impact. I can confidently say I have done that and will strive to keep doing so. I’m filled with emotions right now that I have a season-ending injury, but also filled with so much gratitude for what is next.”
Reese finished her historic rookie season averaging 13.6 PPG, 13.1 RPG, and 1.9 APG. After year one, she has the most single-season rebounds in WNBA history, the highest RPG average in a single season, and most consecutive double-doubles.
Chennedy Carter returned this week and neared a triple-double with 15 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in the win over the Sparks. Glad to see her back on the court after being hospitalized for a week with a non-COVID illness.
With Reese out, Isabelle Harrison got the start in a must-win game against the Wings. She exploded for 21 points and nine rebounds. Carter added 28 points in the emphatic home victory.
“We’ve been facing adversity all year,” Harrison said post-game. “It’s a next man up.” The Sky eliminated the Wings from playoff contention with the win and still hold the 8th and final playoff spot.
9. Atlanta Dream (12-23)
Previous Ranking: 8
Last Week: L at Mercury 66-74, W vs. Wings 107-96 OT, L at Fever 100-104 OT
This Week: Tuesday vs. Lynx, Friday vs. Mystics, Sunday at Mystics
Team Stats: OffRtg: 96.5 (12); DefRtg: 101.1 (6); NetRtg: -4.6 (9); eFG%: 45.6 (12)
Atlanta started the week with a loss to Phoenix despite Rhyne Howard’s stellar 34-point outing. Then, the Dream prevailed in a must-win overtime battle against Dallas on Friday, a win that kept their playoff hopes alive. Rhyne Howard soared to a 33-point, 6-assist performance to seal the victory. Two days later, Howard dropped 36 points in the narrow overtime loss to the Fever. She now owns the franchise record for the most points scored by any Atlanta Dream player over a three-game span with 100. Angel McCoughtry previously held the record with 95 points in the 2011 season. Elite.
The Dream’s hunt for that 8th playoff spot is still an uphill battle. A week full of the Lynx and Mystics—two trending teams—will prove what they’re made of. We got a taste of Playoff Rhyne last season (a first-round sweep exit by the Wings), and I think we’d be in for a treat.
10. Washington Mystics (11-24)
Previous Ranking: 11
Last Week: W at Wings 90-86, W at Mercury 90-77, L vs. Lynx 71-78
This Week: Wednesday at Sky, Friday at Dream, Sunday vs. Dream
Team Stats: OffRtg: 97.4 (10); DefRtg: 102.8 (8); NetRtg: -4.9 (10); eFG%: 50.5 (5)
Here come the Mystics! Heading into Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota, Washington won five of their last six games, becoming one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch.
Karlie Samuelson was perfect verse Phoenix: a career-high 19 points on 5-5 from beyond the arc. The Mystics are second in the league in 3-point percentage, and Samuelson is a big reason why.
Karlie "Perfect" Samuelson 🔥
Stats vs. Phoenix:
19 PTS (career high)
6-6 FGM
5-5 3PM#WelcometotheW pic.twitter.com/p1cNaTXGSM— WNBA (@WNBA) September 6, 2024
“We’ve been playing good basketball,” Coach Eric Thibault said after the Mercury win. “It’s fun to watch. It’s fun to play. Just kind of riding the wave right now. Karlie shooting like that, obviously, makes a big difference. Keep doing what we’re doing. Don’t talk about [the playoff race]. Keep playing good basketball. That’s it.”
The close loss to Minnesota on Sunday put a dent in the Mystics’ playoff hopes, but with Dallas and Atlanta losing, there’s still a chance. Starting the season 0-12 to 8th seed would be a remarkable comeback story.
11. Dallas Wings (9-26)
Previous Ranking: 10
Last Week: L vs Mystics 86-90, L at Dream 96-107 OT, L at Sky 77-92
This Week: Tuesday vs. Liberty, Thursday vs. Liberty, Friday vs. Storm, Sunday at Fever
Team Stats: OffRtg: 101.9 (5); DefRtg: 110.6 (12); NetRtg: -8.7 (11); eFG%: 48.9 (7)
The late arrival of Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard, and Maddy Siegrist turns out to be not enough for the Wings to get over the hump: Dallas’ playoff hopes are officially over.
The Texas team needs to work on plenty of areas this off-season, but defense needs to be at the top of the list. They are stuck at the bottom of nearly every team’s statistical defensive category, including defensive rating. The Wings front office needs to headhunter a lockdown defender or craft a new scheme for the players to buy into. Regardless, something has to change.
Arike is still going to Arike. The six-year guard is the league’s second-leading scorer (22.6 PPG), averaging the most assists per game of her career. Now, they need to find her some help.
Los Angeles Sparks (7-28)
Previous Ranking: 12
Last Week: L at Fever 86-93, L at Sky 78-92, L vs. Sun 67-79
This Week: Tuesday vs. Sun, Wednesday vs. Storm, Sunday at Storm
Team Stats: OffRtg: 97.0 (11); DefRtg: 106.2 (10); NetRtg: -9.2 (12); eFG%: 48.0 (9)
The Sparks were unfortunately ransacked by injuries this season. Cameron Brink’s season-ending ACL injury started the domino effect of LA’s lousy luck, continuing with Lexie Brown, Aari McDonald, and Layshia Clarendon, who’s missed extensive time for mental health.
Now, with five games left, the Sparks can thoroughly look towards the future. It’s been reported they have a whopping 42.1% chance at the number one draft pick after missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season. Meanwhile, Sparks fans will be reminiscing of better days.
